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Strategic Study of Chinese Academy of Engineering doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2023.07.013

Beijing‒Tianjin‒Hebei Coordinated Development toward the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

1. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Beijing 100084, China;
3. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
4. International College Beijing, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China;
5. Institute for Carbon Neutrality, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
6. Beijing Laboratory of Environmental Frontier Technologies, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2022-11-21 Revised:2023-01-05 Available online:2023-02-22

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The Beijing‒Tianjin‒Hebei (BTH) region is intensive in energy consumption and carbon emission. Under the constraint of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, it is significant to analyze the coordinated development policies that synergistically promote low-carbon economic and social transformation in the BTH region. A long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP)-BTH model is constructed considering the characteristics of the BTH region, to analyze the energy demand and carbon emission of the region from 2021 to 2060. Three scenarios are considered, namely baseline scenario, low-carbon scenario, and coordinated scenario, and eight sub-scenarios are taken into account. The results indicate that: (1) In the baseline scenario, the energy demand in the BTH region will continue to grow, and the carbon emissions of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei in 2060 will decrease to 41%, 40%, and 53% of that in 2020, respectively, facing great challenges for achieving carbon neutrality. (2) In the low-carbon scenario, the carbon emissions of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei in 2060 will decrease to 20%, 26%, and 46% of that in 2020, respectively, and the BTH region will still not be carbon neutral. (3) In the coordinated scenario, the carbon emissions of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei in 2060 will decrease to 13%, 15%, and 21% of that in 2020, respectively, thus achieving carbon neutrality. Several suggestions were further proposed. Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei should adopt clearer and stricter policies for their key emission reduction sectors and measures. For example, Beijing should promote low-carbon transition in its transportation and construction sectors, while Tianjin and Hebei should promote renewable energy alternatives and low-carbon industrial upgrading. Top-level design should be optimized to fully tap the potentials for coordinated development of industry, energy, transportation, and other sectors, with the focus on promoting coordinated industrial upgrading and coordinated energy development.

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