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Strategic Study of Chinese Academy of Engineering doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2022.07.009

Development Strategy of China’s Coal Industry under the Reconstruction of Global Industrial Chain and Energy Supply Chain

1. China Coal Technology and Engineering Group, Beijing 100013, China;

2. Institute of Deep Earth Sciences and Green Energy, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, Guangdong, China;

3. China Coal Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 100013, China;

4. CCTEG Coal Industry Planning Institute, Beijing 100011, China;

5. China Coal Economic Research Association, Beijing 102300, China)

Received:2022-06-28 Revised:2022-08-16 Available online:2022-09-08

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As the reconstruction of global industrial chain and energy supply chain accelerates and variables in China’s energy supply security increase, it becomes inevitable for China to maximize the guarantee function of coal. Considering the characteristics of the accelerated reconstruction of the two chains, this study analyzes the impacts of the reconstruction on China's energy sector: large fluctuation of energy demand structure, restricted local production capacity, increased import risks, and increased pressure on lowcarbon transition. A fluctuation prediction model is established to predict the fluctuation range of coal demand considering these scenarios: fluctuation of fossil energy imports, output fluctuation of renewable energies, and consistent growth of energy consumption. The results indicate that coal demand will fluctuate by ±14.1% in 2025, ±16.5% in 2030, and ±18.2% in 2035, respectively. Therefore, we propose that a coal technology innovation chain should be constructed by extending and improving the coal industrial and supply chains. Moreover, future key tasks should include intelligent construction of coal mines, green development and clean transformation of coal, research and development of carbon sequestration and utilization technology in coal mine areas, and collaborative development of coal and new energies. To promote the long-term high-quality development of the coal industry in China, it is necessary to encourage the fine exploration of coal resources, strengthen the construction of coal reserves and emergency transportation capacities, improve the flexible supply of coal, enhance the support capacity for coal-to-oil and coal-to-gas production, and formulate support policies for coal industry development.

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